In writing my blog a few days ago, I forgot to mention that there is a tax credit that will apply to first time home buyers who buy a home between now & June 30, 2009. The total amount a person may be eligible for is $7,500. The eligibility is dependent upon income. This is a great article from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) that demonstrates the credit.
The tax credit was designed to try and jump start the real estate market, as well as clearing out of unsold inventory. The government figures that now, more than ever- first time home buyers need to have an incentive to buy in today's market. The way it works is simple. Buy a house now (any house will do!). It can be new or existing. It can be in any location, in any condition. The stipulation to qualify for the tax credit is that it must be your first home, or you must not have owned a home for the last three years, and you must promise to live in the home (owner occupied). The IRS will deduct $7,500 from your tax bill (if filing jointly), or $3,500 minimum as an individual filer. You may qualify for the entire amount if you're filing individually if your income is less than $75,000 per year.
If you already own a home, sorry- you don't qualify for this tax credit. But if you sold your house and have been renting (instead of owning a home) for at least three years, you do qualify. This is essentially like a loan, that you will be required to pay back over time. Starting in the second year, and continuing through the 15th year it must be paid back. This amounts to $500 per year if you keep it for 15 years. If you sell before the end of 15 years and have no gain on the sale, you will not be expected to pay it back.
If you've been thinking of buying a home in Tucson, please don't hesitate to call me for the details of this great incentive! Please give me a call if you're thinking of buying or selling a home in Tucson.
Written by Sarah Ley,
BSBA, ABR, CRS, CNHSA
Realtor with Long Realty Company
Direct: (520) 404-0544
http://www.sarahley.longrealty.com/
sley@longrealty.com
Friday, August 15, 2008
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Selling your Tucson Home in August 2008
Have you recently thought about selling your Tucson home? Unless you've had your head in the sand for the last eight months of the year, 2008 has been an interesting year (to say the least) for sellers and want to be sellers. It's the school of hard knocks & price drops... Here's a story for all of you tenacious sellers out there in the Tucson real estate market place. Even real estate agents are feeling the brunt of this market. Read my story!
I'm writing this post sort of tongue-in-cheek, as last week, a two story house across the street from a rental property that I own got struck by lightning & burned to the ground. "It's a total loss," I was told by the insurance adjuster who called me to try & locate the owner of that house! If I don't laugh about this, I will surely end up crying over it. Mind you, I bought the house at the market's peak in 2005, and like so many other would be sellers out there, I have seen its value sink faster than Michael Phelps' competition in the last six months. I attribute the decline mostly to a boat load of foreclosures in the neighborhood. I had the house on the market for four months of this year (before my tenant moved out in the end of July). The entire time it was listed, I only had one agent from Long Realty (thankfully) show the house! I know it's hard to show a house that's occupied by a tenant, but at the same time, it's also very difficult to compete with bank owned properties that end up selling for $40,000 less than what I was trying to sell mine for.
I decided that I am not ready to take a bath in the sale of my rental home. Like many of the sellers out there- I don't have to sell. So it made the most sense to take it off the market and set about finding a new tenant for it. That hasn't been an easy task, especially when in addition to the property values sinking, now the house across the street from me got struck by lightning & burned to the ground! I know I keep bringing that up, but it just seems to drive home the drama of what we home sellers and real estate agents face in today's challenging real estate market. The ironic thing was that that house was one of the ones trying to sell as a short sale before the lender foreclosed on it. Talk about a quagmire! I'm still scratching my head wondering whose insurance is going to pay the cost of re-building this house. Will it be the lender who was ready to foreclose and take it back from the buyer, or will it be the home owner who had no equity to begin with? Obviously the home owner has already walked away from the house, as the insurance adjuster couldn't figure out how to get ahold of him. I had to give the insurance adjuster the name of this guy's real estate company. I actually knew the agent who had it listed, so I called her to tell her & she said that the insurance adjuster had already called her. It looks like the lender is just taking the property back from the seller now. Talk about damaged goods!
So, I post & I re-post the rental every five days or so on craigslist. I get calls daily from the sign. Overall, I've had a lot of inquiries about the house, but it seems like every homeowner in Tucson who was in the same situation as me (not wanting to take a loss on the sale of their home) is now trying to rent the home instead of selling it! Wow, there are a lot of rentals in Tucson to choose from. I think this is only going to stall the real estate market from recovery an even longer time. Honestly, what incentive do people have to buy a home when they can rent one for a lot less (without any of the financial or otherwise burdensome obligations of home ownership). And can you blame them? It's a daily media storm of articles saying, "The real estate market has further to fall." Or, "It's harder than ever to qualify for a mortgage now that we are 'in a recession in Arizona' and banks have been hit hard by the wave of foreclosures."
Buyers, I make a living facilitating real estate transactions, and I have to admit, I don't blame you for showing some cautionary restraint- and maybe even not wanting to buy a house in Tucson at the moment. Buying is a good thing to do, and it makes clear financial sense in my opinion (even in a down real estate market) if you plan to 1) put a decent down payment, 2) live in the house, 3) not see it as an investment, but a roof over your head, and 4) plan to own it for at least five years. Obviously, there are still real estate investors out there, and thankfully bank owned properties are quite enticing to skilled real estate investors who have the stomach for them. Many of the deals being offered by banks are at huge cut-rate prices, some up to 30% less than what they were selling for even a year ago. These houses need work and are "As-Is" sales, so you have to roll up your sleeves (or have a great handyman) if you're going to pursue this type of property. But it is appealing to many investors, as finally some of these houses actually can have a positive cash flow.
This post was supposed to be about selling your Tucson home, so I've got to address that issue. Let's see, here are my 'words of wisdom' for prospective home sellers in Tucson in August 2008. Don't sell right now unless you 1) are highly motivated, 2) have to move, and 3) have the patience to keep your house in top showing condition & priced right for the market. Yes, it can be a test of wills, but if you have the desire, the need, and the strength of a good Realtor- you can definitely sell in this market, in any market. I have sold three houses in the past month, so I know it can be done. Please give me a call if you would like a complimentary review of your home's value in today's market- aspirin not included!
Written by Sarah Ley,
BSBA, ABR, CRS, CNHSA
Tucson, AZ Realtor with
Long Realty Company
Direct: (520) 404-0544
http://www.sarahley.longrealty.com/
sley@longrealty.com
I'm writing this post sort of tongue-in-cheek, as last week, a two story house across the street from a rental property that I own got struck by lightning & burned to the ground. "It's a total loss," I was told by the insurance adjuster who called me to try & locate the owner of that house! If I don't laugh about this, I will surely end up crying over it. Mind you, I bought the house at the market's peak in 2005, and like so many other would be sellers out there, I have seen its value sink faster than Michael Phelps' competition in the last six months. I attribute the decline mostly to a boat load of foreclosures in the neighborhood. I had the house on the market for four months of this year (before my tenant moved out in the end of July). The entire time it was listed, I only had one agent from Long Realty (thankfully) show the house! I know it's hard to show a house that's occupied by a tenant, but at the same time, it's also very difficult to compete with bank owned properties that end up selling for $40,000 less than what I was trying to sell mine for.
I decided that I am not ready to take a bath in the sale of my rental home. Like many of the sellers out there- I don't have to sell. So it made the most sense to take it off the market and set about finding a new tenant for it. That hasn't been an easy task, especially when in addition to the property values sinking, now the house across the street from me got struck by lightning & burned to the ground! I know I keep bringing that up, but it just seems to drive home the drama of what we home sellers and real estate agents face in today's challenging real estate market. The ironic thing was that that house was one of the ones trying to sell as a short sale before the lender foreclosed on it. Talk about a quagmire! I'm still scratching my head wondering whose insurance is going to pay the cost of re-building this house. Will it be the lender who was ready to foreclose and take it back from the buyer, or will it be the home owner who had no equity to begin with? Obviously the home owner has already walked away from the house, as the insurance adjuster couldn't figure out how to get ahold of him. I had to give the insurance adjuster the name of this guy's real estate company. I actually knew the agent who had it listed, so I called her to tell her & she said that the insurance adjuster had already called her. It looks like the lender is just taking the property back from the seller now. Talk about damaged goods!
So, I post & I re-post the rental every five days or so on craigslist. I get calls daily from the sign. Overall, I've had a lot of inquiries about the house, but it seems like every homeowner in Tucson who was in the same situation as me (not wanting to take a loss on the sale of their home) is now trying to rent the home instead of selling it! Wow, there are a lot of rentals in Tucson to choose from. I think this is only going to stall the real estate market from recovery an even longer time. Honestly, what incentive do people have to buy a home when they can rent one for a lot less (without any of the financial or otherwise burdensome obligations of home ownership). And can you blame them? It's a daily media storm of articles saying, "The real estate market has further to fall." Or, "It's harder than ever to qualify for a mortgage now that we are 'in a recession in Arizona' and banks have been hit hard by the wave of foreclosures."
Buyers, I make a living facilitating real estate transactions, and I have to admit, I don't blame you for showing some cautionary restraint- and maybe even not wanting to buy a house in Tucson at the moment. Buying is a good thing to do, and it makes clear financial sense in my opinion (even in a down real estate market) if you plan to 1) put a decent down payment, 2) live in the house, 3) not see it as an investment, but a roof over your head, and 4) plan to own it for at least five years. Obviously, there are still real estate investors out there, and thankfully bank owned properties are quite enticing to skilled real estate investors who have the stomach for them. Many of the deals being offered by banks are at huge cut-rate prices, some up to 30% less than what they were selling for even a year ago. These houses need work and are "As-Is" sales, so you have to roll up your sleeves (or have a great handyman) if you're going to pursue this type of property. But it is appealing to many investors, as finally some of these houses actually can have a positive cash flow.
This post was supposed to be about selling your Tucson home, so I've got to address that issue. Let's see, here are my 'words of wisdom' for prospective home sellers in Tucson in August 2008. Don't sell right now unless you 1) are highly motivated, 2) have to move, and 3) have the patience to keep your house in top showing condition & priced right for the market. Yes, it can be a test of wills, but if you have the desire, the need, and the strength of a good Realtor- you can definitely sell in this market, in any market. I have sold three houses in the past month, so I know it can be done. Please give me a call if you would like a complimentary review of your home's value in today's market- aspirin not included!
Written by Sarah Ley,
BSBA, ABR, CRS, CNHSA
Tucson, AZ Realtor with
Long Realty Company
Direct: (520) 404-0544
http://www.sarahley.longrealty.com/
sley@longrealty.com
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Mortgage Woes for Fannie & Freddie
Front page of the Wall Street Journal today was an article entitled, "Mortgage Giants take Hit on Fears Over Capital." Well this is surely nothing new in today's turbulent economic times, the statistic that struck me the most was that both of these companies (who were expected to aid the failing housing industry in it's recovery), have taken hits to the tune of over 60% YTD. Their lowest levels in 14 years. The plot just seems to keep thickening for the troubled financial industry. If Fannie & Freddie keep weakening their stock by selling bonds to raise needed capital, they are possibly digging a hole that only the government can bail them out of. Shareholders know this, and fears have incited a sell off of stock.
The prognosis for the housing market as a whole doesn't look very bright at the moment, especially considering that Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac are the biggest providers of funding for US home mortgages. Couple that with surging gas prices, near hyper-inflation, and tightening of the money supply by prominent banks. The result is a stream of fear who's inception begins on Wall Street and trickles down to Main Street, USA. Consumers everywhere are tightening their belts- decreasing spending on housing, retail, restaurants, and just about anywhere they can seem to trim the fat from their budgets. It's no wonder. Due to rising gas prices, decreasing home values, and inflation, our dollars are not going as far as they used to. With banks ever tightening their grip on mortgage funding due to increased foreclosures and decreased room for error, many consumers are being forced out of the mortgage market all together. In the short term the impact of this "Mortgage Meltdown" may have a huge effect on property sales in Tucson. Already in Tucson we are seeing real estate transactions falling apart as lenders become more restrictive with their underwriting criteria, many deciding at the last minute not to fund loans they had already committed to funding. This is obviously creating a stranglehold on buyers and sellers, causing moves to be completely fouled up, or cancelled altogether.
Currently, fewer lenders are offering second mortgages (such as 80/10/10's), 100% financing, loans to people with low credit scores, and no doc loans that previously required little to no verification of income or assets. Most lenders state they still fund loans to borrowers with good debt to income ratios, 10% or more down payments, and high credit scores, but at what price? The cost of borrowing money is increasing, along with the cost of just about everything else! Borrowers in today's mortgage market are paying higher closing costs to compensate for the changes in underwriting and funding criteria, and the fact that now many lenders must keep these loans in their own portfolios (as opposed to selling them in the secondary mortgage market). You don't have to be a genius to figure out that the increased difficulty in getting a mortgage is in turn causing many homeowners to hunker down and not make a move or refinance unless they absolutely have to (death, divorce, or job transfer).
Components of mortgages have drastically changed in the last six months, along with banks stricter underwriting standards and criteria. Mortgage insurance, which had all but disappeared since 2004 has now reared its somewhat ugly head again. This takes a big bite out of the average home owner's monthly mortgage, many to the tune of $150 a month and up for borrowers putting less than 20% as a down payment. A new weariness of borrowing money (especially for big purchases) has hit today's consumer. Many are opting to rent as opposed to buy, especially if they have little or no money for a down payment. The combination of fears over capital and fears over debt by consumers seems to be creating a withdrawal affect on the overall economy. This is a vicious cycle that will end up causing more and more job losses as consumers pull back from spending, and corporations are more cautious about lending.
FHA was the golden goose that Congress and the White House were betting on to revive the depleted housing market. But with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac suffering combined losses of over $11 billion, analysts are expecting the picture to worsen, as more and more borrowers are forced into foreclosure. The implications for the housing market are troubling, because losses for these two mortgage giants means higher mortgage rates and costs for consumers. The worst case scenario of Fannie & Freddie not being able to handle their obligations- forcing a government bail out, has the possibility to render their shares worthless.
At any rate, what's the average homeowner to do if you want to sell your home, or buy a new one? There is still a real estate market in Tucson, and serious buyers are looking to buy a home. In order to foster a sale in today's challenging market environment, it is critical that your home be priced to sell, as buyers have every right- given the economic situation and the abundance of inventory- to be choosy.
If you have any questions about buying or selling Tucson real estate in today's market, please do not hesitate to call me.
Written by Sarah Ley,
BSBA, ABR, CRS, CHNSA
Realtor with Long Realty Company
Direct: (520) 404-0544
http://www.sarahley.longrealty.com/
sley@longrealty.com
The prognosis for the housing market as a whole doesn't look very bright at the moment, especially considering that Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac are the biggest providers of funding for US home mortgages. Couple that with surging gas prices, near hyper-inflation, and tightening of the money supply by prominent banks. The result is a stream of fear who's inception begins on Wall Street and trickles down to Main Street, USA. Consumers everywhere are tightening their belts- decreasing spending on housing, retail, restaurants, and just about anywhere they can seem to trim the fat from their budgets. It's no wonder. Due to rising gas prices, decreasing home values, and inflation, our dollars are not going as far as they used to. With banks ever tightening their grip on mortgage funding due to increased foreclosures and decreased room for error, many consumers are being forced out of the mortgage market all together. In the short term the impact of this "Mortgage Meltdown" may have a huge effect on property sales in Tucson. Already in Tucson we are seeing real estate transactions falling apart as lenders become more restrictive with their underwriting criteria, many deciding at the last minute not to fund loans they had already committed to funding. This is obviously creating a stranglehold on buyers and sellers, causing moves to be completely fouled up, or cancelled altogether.
Currently, fewer lenders are offering second mortgages (such as 80/10/10's), 100% financing, loans to people with low credit scores, and no doc loans that previously required little to no verification of income or assets. Most lenders state they still fund loans to borrowers with good debt to income ratios, 10% or more down payments, and high credit scores, but at what price? The cost of borrowing money is increasing, along with the cost of just about everything else! Borrowers in today's mortgage market are paying higher closing costs to compensate for the changes in underwriting and funding criteria, and the fact that now many lenders must keep these loans in their own portfolios (as opposed to selling them in the secondary mortgage market). You don't have to be a genius to figure out that the increased difficulty in getting a mortgage is in turn causing many homeowners to hunker down and not make a move or refinance unless they absolutely have to (death, divorce, or job transfer).
Components of mortgages have drastically changed in the last six months, along with banks stricter underwriting standards and criteria. Mortgage insurance, which had all but disappeared since 2004 has now reared its somewhat ugly head again. This takes a big bite out of the average home owner's monthly mortgage, many to the tune of $150 a month and up for borrowers putting less than 20% as a down payment. A new weariness of borrowing money (especially for big purchases) has hit today's consumer. Many are opting to rent as opposed to buy, especially if they have little or no money for a down payment. The combination of fears over capital and fears over debt by consumers seems to be creating a withdrawal affect on the overall economy. This is a vicious cycle that will end up causing more and more job losses as consumers pull back from spending, and corporations are more cautious about lending.
FHA was the golden goose that Congress and the White House were betting on to revive the depleted housing market. But with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac suffering combined losses of over $11 billion, analysts are expecting the picture to worsen, as more and more borrowers are forced into foreclosure. The implications for the housing market are troubling, because losses for these two mortgage giants means higher mortgage rates and costs for consumers. The worst case scenario of Fannie & Freddie not being able to handle their obligations- forcing a government bail out, has the possibility to render their shares worthless.
At any rate, what's the average homeowner to do if you want to sell your home, or buy a new one? There is still a real estate market in Tucson, and serious buyers are looking to buy a home. In order to foster a sale in today's challenging market environment, it is critical that your home be priced to sell, as buyers have every right- given the economic situation and the abundance of inventory- to be choosy.
If you have any questions about buying or selling Tucson real estate in today's market, please do not hesitate to call me.
Written by Sarah Ley,
BSBA, ABR, CRS, CHNSA
Realtor with Long Realty Company
Direct: (520) 404-0544
http://www.sarahley.longrealty.com/
sley@longrealty.com
Sunday, June 15, 2008
The Summer of the Short Sale
I just got back from a vacation on the east coast. Part of the time I was there I stayed with family outside of Boston. Invariably, real estate and the real estate market was a logical topic of discussion, considering that one of my Aunts is also a real estate broker. In general, it seemed that a lot of people in the Boston area (which has historically had some of the highest real estate prices in the nation), view the market as being battered and beaten down by the current real estate down turn. "It will come back eventually, it's a cycle," said my Aunt who is a real estate broker in Westwood, MA- an affluent suburb of Boston. She also said, "Now is the time to buy. We have a lot of inventory, and the prices are very manageable compared with a few years ago." Interesting, I thought and agreed. It is a great time to buy, and buyers can afford to be choosy right now.
On the plane trip home, I picked up an article in the Washington Post, entitled "Where Short Sales Stumble." It was a remarkably well written and informative article that had an excellent perspective about short sales. I recommend anyone who is considering buying a short sale property, or anyone wishing to increase their knowledge of short sales to read this article. Considering that it's a buyer's market in most areas of the nation, many buyers are on the lookout for 'deals.' You can't blame them! That MLS listing of a 'short sale,' may not be as legitimate as it appears on the surface. Buyer beware. If the seller is upside down (owing more on the house than it's current market value), a short sale most likely will not be accepted by the bank- especially if the buyer is not behind on their payments. Don't let the seller fool you on this one! Most upside down owners should consider staying put if they can afford their mortgage and do not have to move. Banks are a for profit business, and they do not have sympathy that a borrower's house has dropped in value if the borrower can still afford to make their payment. Borrowers in this situation should be prepared to stay put, unless they have the cash to pull from their pocket or 401K to close a sale. So make sure that you are dealing with a legitimate short sale, not an upside down owner.
There are a series of questions that any prospective buyer of a short sale property needs to have answered before making an offer. These are the most important questions to get answers to upfront. Having answers to these questions, will (in my opinion) dramatically increase the odds of having your short sale purchase actually be accepted by the bank and close escrow.
1) How many banks need to approve the sale?
A- If it's more than one, the property will most likely fall short of being accepted as a short sale because it will require the approval of more than one bank.
2) Has the seller received a notice of default?
A- If so, the bank is probably ready to deal, but make sure that the foreclosure date is at least six weeks away- otherwise it's too short of a window for the myriad of paperwork and red tape that you will have to cut through to get the short sale approved.
3) Has the short sale been 'pre-approved' by the bank?
A- Do not attempt to make an offer unless this is the case. If the bank hasn't heard that the borrower is wanting to negotiate a short sale, it may be news to them, and you do not want to deal with the type of seller who is just hoping to dangle the 'magic carrot' in front of the lender. Do you want to be the guinea pig, and take a gamble that the lender will bite?
4) Does the listing agent have experience in negotiating short sales?
A- This is a very important question to ask up front. If the answer is no, consider walking away, as once again, do you want to be the guinea pig? If you're dealing with an aggressive listing agent who is experienced in negotiating short sales, you may be in luck. But make sure the the listing agent has the right person to talk to at the bank, and that they have initiated contact before you submit your offer.
Overall, the percentage of short sales that go to closing is only about 1 in 20. The key in successfully buying a short sale property is to work with an experienced Realtor, don't do inspections prior to approval of the short sale, and be prepared to walk away if it seems like more hassle than it's worth. Make sure you have all the facts before you make your offer- or it could be a really long (and costly) summer for you. And remember, there are plenty of great properties that are priced realistically to choose from that will not be so aggravating to negotiate with. That's the buyer's advantage in this market.
Please contact me with any questions about this article, or about the Tucson real estate market. I would be happy to be of service with your real estate needs.
Written by Sarah Ley
BSBA, ABR, CRS, CNHSA
Realtor with Long Realty
Direct: (520) 404-0544
sley@longrealty.com
http://www.sarahley.longrealty.com/
On the plane trip home, I picked up an article in the Washington Post, entitled "Where Short Sales Stumble." It was a remarkably well written and informative article that had an excellent perspective about short sales. I recommend anyone who is considering buying a short sale property, or anyone wishing to increase their knowledge of short sales to read this article. Considering that it's a buyer's market in most areas of the nation, many buyers are on the lookout for 'deals.' You can't blame them! That MLS listing of a 'short sale,' may not be as legitimate as it appears on the surface. Buyer beware. If the seller is upside down (owing more on the house than it's current market value), a short sale most likely will not be accepted by the bank- especially if the buyer is not behind on their payments. Don't let the seller fool you on this one! Most upside down owners should consider staying put if they can afford their mortgage and do not have to move. Banks are a for profit business, and they do not have sympathy that a borrower's house has dropped in value if the borrower can still afford to make their payment. Borrowers in this situation should be prepared to stay put, unless they have the cash to pull from their pocket or 401K to close a sale. So make sure that you are dealing with a legitimate short sale, not an upside down owner.
There are a series of questions that any prospective buyer of a short sale property needs to have answered before making an offer. These are the most important questions to get answers to upfront. Having answers to these questions, will (in my opinion) dramatically increase the odds of having your short sale purchase actually be accepted by the bank and close escrow.
1) How many banks need to approve the sale?
A- If it's more than one, the property will most likely fall short of being accepted as a short sale because it will require the approval of more than one bank.
2) Has the seller received a notice of default?
A- If so, the bank is probably ready to deal, but make sure that the foreclosure date is at least six weeks away- otherwise it's too short of a window for the myriad of paperwork and red tape that you will have to cut through to get the short sale approved.
3) Has the short sale been 'pre-approved' by the bank?
A- Do not attempt to make an offer unless this is the case. If the bank hasn't heard that the borrower is wanting to negotiate a short sale, it may be news to them, and you do not want to deal with the type of seller who is just hoping to dangle the 'magic carrot' in front of the lender. Do you want to be the guinea pig, and take a gamble that the lender will bite?
4) Does the listing agent have experience in negotiating short sales?
A- This is a very important question to ask up front. If the answer is no, consider walking away, as once again, do you want to be the guinea pig? If you're dealing with an aggressive listing agent who is experienced in negotiating short sales, you may be in luck. But make sure the the listing agent has the right person to talk to at the bank, and that they have initiated contact before you submit your offer.
Overall, the percentage of short sales that go to closing is only about 1 in 20. The key in successfully buying a short sale property is to work with an experienced Realtor, don't do inspections prior to approval of the short sale, and be prepared to walk away if it seems like more hassle than it's worth. Make sure you have all the facts before you make your offer- or it could be a really long (and costly) summer for you. And remember, there are plenty of great properties that are priced realistically to choose from that will not be so aggravating to negotiate with. That's the buyer's advantage in this market.
Please contact me with any questions about this article, or about the Tucson real estate market. I would be happy to be of service with your real estate needs.
Written by Sarah Ley
BSBA, ABR, CRS, CNHSA
Realtor with Long Realty
Direct: (520) 404-0544
sley@longrealty.com
http://www.sarahley.longrealty.com/
Monday, April 14, 2008
The Tax Man & What does that have to do with Real Estate?
It's the day before tax day, and many folks are especially stressed out to meet the April 15th deadline. I was thinking that there is a connection about how people feel during tax season, and how buyers and sellers feel during a challenging real estate market.
It's that sort of market right now. A market that makes you feel like tomorrow is tax day. Buyers are anxious. There are so many choices. Prices seem to be all over the map. Many buyers want to 'wait out the market' until it hits the absolute bottom. But this strategy is flawed, and leaves out the fact that all the time they are waiting, they could have been getting some great tax deductions by owning real estate. They could have been saving money by not renting. Could of, would of, should of. It's that classic second guessing syndrome. It reminds me of watching a gorilla at the zoo and trying to guess which side of his cage he will go to next. You just never know, do you?
It's the same way with the real estate market. It could go any way the wind goes. None of us has access to that proverbial crystal ball. That being said, it seems logical that if you need to buy a house, you buy a house- no matter what the market is doing. This market will help buyers immensely, so score one more for the buyers' side of the fence. Buyers- here are the facts: Seller's are ready to deal. Prices have dropped. Interest rates are low. There are plentiful choices of homes for sale in all price ranges. Even if you don't get your first choice, you can move onto your second, third...tenth- well, you get the idea! Buying a home is like doing your taxes- when you gotta do it, you gotta just do it. Truly, there is no time like the present. For those who want to keep waiting...Well. What can I say, other than that is your prerogative. One of my favorite quotes is the following, "Life is what happens while you're busy making plans." So for all the buyers who are planning to hold out for the bottom, just remember the trade off from not being able to enjoy your new home. Why postpone your happiness, when historically real estate is the safest investment you can make?
Sellers have a different sense of anxiety than buyers right now. And buyers, in case you haven't figured it out yet- you've got it made, especially if you're not needing to sell a home before you buy. I have several clients who are in this situation that I term, "frozen equity." They must sell before they can buy. Given the state of the market, that's not an easy task by any stretch of the imagination. Many houses have been and are sitting on the market for what to many home sellers seems to be an exhausting and unbearable length of time. Some in excess of a year or more. Even great houses that I thought would sell in a heartbeat are still sitting on the market. Sometimes clean houses that are move in ready and have had big price reductions still fail to get buyers' attentions, and have sat without offers for great lengths of time. This can only be attributed to a glut of inventory, and a decline in demand by buyers who are waiting out the market, as mentioned above.
Bottom line is that in this market, buyers want to feel that they are getting "a deal." They want the best house on the block for the least buck! If you, Mr. Home Seller, are not comfortable selling your home in this sort of an environment, especially if you don't want, or don't need to sell- please don't put your home on the market right now. You'll just be setting yourself up for aggravation in an overcrowded marketplace. There is a huge amount of real estate inventory that needs to be cleared out before the market has any chance of becoming a more balanced market. It's no different than a department store after Christmas. Most shoppers are going ganga over the 50% off clearance holiday merchandise. The new shipment of Valentine items is (however beautiful and prominently displayed) collecting dust. It's just a case of simple human nature to try and get the best price possible, whether it's real estate or Christmas decorations.
When a conventional seller's property is competing with foreclosures in a neighborhood, the resulting environment is like a department store after Christmas. The element of deep discounting in a market with many foreclosures and excess inventory confounds the situation, creating a clearance sale mentality and lowering the perceived and actual market value of the community as a whole. Neighbors can try to help neighbors in an attempt to prevent further erosion in home values, however counter intuitive this type of action may seem. That way, we can help to get rid of the old inventory, bring in the new, and keep up the neigbhorhood in the process.
How is the real estate market related to tax season, you ask? Well, like tax season, an artificial frenzy is created when money owed and deadlines come together. The current real estate market is also an artificial frenzy, created by previously artificially high real estate prices, and further perpetuated by the media to sell more newspapers. This artificial frenzy, like any artificial frenzy feeds on itself, and the hole deepens with each bite. If the market were left alone to its own defenses, buyers would buy and sellers would sell. But when you add the component of money and deadlines, fear is created, thus the cycle broadens. The real estate market will eventually even out and stabilize, it's just a matter of when. Like any other challenge in life, it's about a mind set. In order for a change to take place, a necessary perspective shift must occur. It's a psychological line in the sand that needs to be crossed in order to see it. Once buyers realize, "Hey, there really are some good deals out there. I need a house, therefore I'm going to buy a house." And sellers sensibly ask their agent, "Hey, I'm taking that job in Ohio. How low do I have to price my house to sell it in 60 days?" The market will come back. It really hasn't gone anywhere. Let us stop throwing the baby out with the bath water and allow the dynamics of the market do their own magic.
Written by Sarah Ley,
BSBA, ABR, CRS, CNHSA
Tucson, AZ Realtor with
Long Realty Company(520) 404-0544
http://www.sarahley.longrealty.com/
sley@longrealty.com
It's that sort of market right now. A market that makes you feel like tomorrow is tax day. Buyers are anxious. There are so many choices. Prices seem to be all over the map. Many buyers want to 'wait out the market' until it hits the absolute bottom. But this strategy is flawed, and leaves out the fact that all the time they are waiting, they could have been getting some great tax deductions by owning real estate. They could have been saving money by not renting. Could of, would of, should of. It's that classic second guessing syndrome. It reminds me of watching a gorilla at the zoo and trying to guess which side of his cage he will go to next. You just never know, do you?
It's the same way with the real estate market. It could go any way the wind goes. None of us has access to that proverbial crystal ball. That being said, it seems logical that if you need to buy a house, you buy a house- no matter what the market is doing. This market will help buyers immensely, so score one more for the buyers' side of the fence. Buyers- here are the facts: Seller's are ready to deal. Prices have dropped. Interest rates are low. There are plentiful choices of homes for sale in all price ranges. Even if you don't get your first choice, you can move onto your second, third...tenth- well, you get the idea! Buying a home is like doing your taxes- when you gotta do it, you gotta just do it. Truly, there is no time like the present. For those who want to keep waiting...Well. What can I say, other than that is your prerogative. One of my favorite quotes is the following, "Life is what happens while you're busy making plans." So for all the buyers who are planning to hold out for the bottom, just remember the trade off from not being able to enjoy your new home. Why postpone your happiness, when historically real estate is the safest investment you can make?
Sellers have a different sense of anxiety than buyers right now. And buyers, in case you haven't figured it out yet- you've got it made, especially if you're not needing to sell a home before you buy. I have several clients who are in this situation that I term, "frozen equity." They must sell before they can buy. Given the state of the market, that's not an easy task by any stretch of the imagination. Many houses have been and are sitting on the market for what to many home sellers seems to be an exhausting and unbearable length of time. Some in excess of a year or more. Even great houses that I thought would sell in a heartbeat are still sitting on the market. Sometimes clean houses that are move in ready and have had big price reductions still fail to get buyers' attentions, and have sat without offers for great lengths of time. This can only be attributed to a glut of inventory, and a decline in demand by buyers who are waiting out the market, as mentioned above.
Bottom line is that in this market, buyers want to feel that they are getting "a deal." They want the best house on the block for the least buck! If you, Mr. Home Seller, are not comfortable selling your home in this sort of an environment, especially if you don't want, or don't need to sell- please don't put your home on the market right now. You'll just be setting yourself up for aggravation in an overcrowded marketplace. There is a huge amount of real estate inventory that needs to be cleared out before the market has any chance of becoming a more balanced market. It's no different than a department store after Christmas. Most shoppers are going ganga over the 50% off clearance holiday merchandise. The new shipment of Valentine items is (however beautiful and prominently displayed) collecting dust. It's just a case of simple human nature to try and get the best price possible, whether it's real estate or Christmas decorations.
When a conventional seller's property is competing with foreclosures in a neighborhood, the resulting environment is like a department store after Christmas. The element of deep discounting in a market with many foreclosures and excess inventory confounds the situation, creating a clearance sale mentality and lowering the perceived and actual market value of the community as a whole. Neighbors can try to help neighbors in an attempt to prevent further erosion in home values, however counter intuitive this type of action may seem. That way, we can help to get rid of the old inventory, bring in the new, and keep up the neigbhorhood in the process.
How is the real estate market related to tax season, you ask? Well, like tax season, an artificial frenzy is created when money owed and deadlines come together. The current real estate market is also an artificial frenzy, created by previously artificially high real estate prices, and further perpetuated by the media to sell more newspapers. This artificial frenzy, like any artificial frenzy feeds on itself, and the hole deepens with each bite. If the market were left alone to its own defenses, buyers would buy and sellers would sell. But when you add the component of money and deadlines, fear is created, thus the cycle broadens. The real estate market will eventually even out and stabilize, it's just a matter of when. Like any other challenge in life, it's about a mind set. In order for a change to take place, a necessary perspective shift must occur. It's a psychological line in the sand that needs to be crossed in order to see it. Once buyers realize, "Hey, there really are some good deals out there. I need a house, therefore I'm going to buy a house." And sellers sensibly ask their agent, "Hey, I'm taking that job in Ohio. How low do I have to price my house to sell it in 60 days?" The market will come back. It really hasn't gone anywhere. Let us stop throwing the baby out with the bath water and allow the dynamics of the market do their own magic.
Written by Sarah Ley,
BSBA, ABR, CRS, CNHSA
Tucson, AZ Realtor with
Long Realty Company(520) 404-0544
http://www.sarahley.longrealty.com/
sley@longrealty.com
Sunday, March 30, 2008
The Mortgage Mountain- "Turning a Big Ship"
"An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last." -Winston Churchill
This is a quote that I believe sums up in a nutshell how many of the nation's lenders are handling their responsibilities in today's credit crisis. Thus, my blog this week is of the editorial nature, as I'm not especially happy with the way lenders are managing situations they may have created by making bad loans to begin with.
I've been reading numerous articles about the deepening mortgage crisis, and I am continually saddened by the stories of individuals, families, and even small home builders who have been swept away by the ever increasing wave of foreclosures. I read one article that likened an individual homeowner attempting to work with lenders to negotiate alternatives for refinancing or freezing their monthly mortgage payment to be like trying to"turn a big ship." That's when I came up with the idea of calling this big ship that is collectively the lender "The Mortgage Mountain." For a lot of hard working people, their monthly mortgage payment seems like an insurmountable mountain that many of them will never get to the top of. I think that lenders owe borrowers a rope and some hooks to help them climb the mountain, rather than being of the mindset that they got themselves into this mess and they should be able to climb it alone.
While it's certainly true that the government seems to be making a concerted effort to stem the tide of foreclosures by offering one-on-one assistance to borrowers that may be in various stages of default on their loans with programs like Hope Now, lenders ought to step in and offer to help borrowers- without being told that they have no choice. After all, the lenders were the ones making loans that they in many instances had no solid idea if the borrowers would or could re-pay. The defining criteria of loan approval for these loans was based solely on the lender's own profit margins and bottom lines, not an ability to re-pay them, as it should have been based upon. These government programs that have been set up to assist borrowers in trouble need to make lenders accountable if they are going to achieve what they were supposedly established to achieve.
There are no easy answers. That is for sure! Even if all of the current sub prime and exotic mortgages were reset to 30 year fixed rate loans at lower interest rates, undoubtedly many borrowers would still be in over their heads. Currently, much of the problem may be attributed more to declining market values than bad loans. What incentive do borrowers have to refinance and stay in their homes when they are upside down on their mortgage and owe more on the house than it's worth in today's market? Plenty it seems for many borrowers. Pride for one thing. Pride of ownership, pride that when you make a promise, you keep it. After all, that's the American way. We were taught that you don't walk away from your obligations. It's amazing how tenaciously many homeowners are struggling to hold onto their homes rather than to take the easy route and walk away from them.
Thankfully, homeowners can find many resources to aid in their battles to keep their homes. Online help is available, in many forms. See this website for an example of one way that grassroots organizations are taking shape to offer creative advice and possible solutions to stave off the tide of foreclosures. Lenders should be thrilled at homeowners who are fighting to keep their homes. They should jump right into the ring with the homeowner to do everything they can to try and make it manageable for the homeowner to refinance at a comfortable rate, so they can stay in their home. In the long run, helping borrowers instead of turning their backs on them has the potential to save the lenders a huge amount of money and headaches by having fewer properties to foreclose on. Fewer foreclosures also means possibly preventing a further erosion of home values. A sea of foreclosures has proven to do nothing for the real estate market but weaken buyer demand and cause a deeper erosion of property values.
A foreclosure can be a life changing experience for many people. Some liken it to a death or a divorce. Surely a financial catastrophe of this magnitude must feel like their world is crumbling to many people. We as real estate agents often times are caught in the middle. Right now in Tucson, many homeowners are attempting to sell their homes in what is called a "short sale." A short sale is when a homeowner who is behind on their mortgage tries to sell their house prior to it foreclosing. In a short sale, the lender agrees to accept less than what is owed on the loan to avoid the expense that it would cost the lender to foreclose on the property.
Short sales are difficult for Realtors because lenders are not very communicative or direct. They usually take much longer to close escrow than regular transactions, leaving the buyer of the house feeling like they were left hanging out to dry. There is one agent in my office who has been waiting to hear back from a lender of a property that a client is purchasing as a short sale for eight weeks. I find this almost impossible to comprehend in today's era of modern technology. Messages can be sent across the world in a matter of seconds. How can a financial entity be this inept at dealing with its accounts? I can only pose that as a rhetorical question for obvious reasons! In many instances, lenders will try to avoid compensating the real estate brokers for their participation in a sale (or else they will drastically reduce their compensation without cause or explanation), simply because they control the money. I know many agents who have worked extremely hard on these types of transactions, only to be burned by the lender in the end.
Additionally, lenders have been know to say they will agree to a short sale, and then once the transaction is complete, they file a deficiency judgement against the borrower in default in an attempt to recover the money they are owed. I have heard from inside sources that the only recourse a borrower has in an instance like this is to file personal bankruptcy. In January of 2009, many people who were either foreclosed on or sold their homes in short sales may be in for a rude awakening when they receive 1099's saying that they had miscellaneous income on the forgiven portion of the loan, and they may owe the IRS income taxes on the forgiven portion of the loan.
All in all, it's a difficult time for many homeowners. There are two silver linings right now for buyers. One is that home prices have dropped considerably, much of the decline being attributed to increased foreclosures and the ripple affect of them. In a few depressed areas of the nation, prices have fallen as much as 40%. Here in Tucson, prices have come down as much as 20% in some areas from their 2005-2006 peaks. Buyers can get a home for much less money, couple that with the second silver lining- the return of FHA financing. The real estate market won't be able to turn around until three things happen: 1) the market must absorb the existing inventory, 2) buyer demand must increase, and 3) lenders must find a way to help distressed homeowners and prospective borrowers. The government should find a way to make lenders accountable for being part of the solution. Otherwise, the government will become the proverbial appeasing alligator too.
Please feel free to call or e-mail me with your questions and/or concerns, and of course if you would like more information about the Tucson real estate market, or are thinking about buying or selling a Tucson property.
Written by Sarah Ley
BSBA, ABR, CRS, CNHSA
Tucson, AZ REALTOR with
Long Realty Company
Direct: (520) 404-0544
http://www.sarahley.longrealty.com/
sley@longrealty.com
This is a quote that I believe sums up in a nutshell how many of the nation's lenders are handling their responsibilities in today's credit crisis. Thus, my blog this week is of the editorial nature, as I'm not especially happy with the way lenders are managing situations they may have created by making bad loans to begin with.
I've been reading numerous articles about the deepening mortgage crisis, and I am continually saddened by the stories of individuals, families, and even small home builders who have been swept away by the ever increasing wave of foreclosures. I read one article that likened an individual homeowner attempting to work with lenders to negotiate alternatives for refinancing or freezing their monthly mortgage payment to be like trying to"turn a big ship." That's when I came up with the idea of calling this big ship that is collectively the lender "The Mortgage Mountain." For a lot of hard working people, their monthly mortgage payment seems like an insurmountable mountain that many of them will never get to the top of. I think that lenders owe borrowers a rope and some hooks to help them climb the mountain, rather than being of the mindset that they got themselves into this mess and they should be able to climb it alone.
While it's certainly true that the government seems to be making a concerted effort to stem the tide of foreclosures by offering one-on-one assistance to borrowers that may be in various stages of default on their loans with programs like Hope Now, lenders ought to step in and offer to help borrowers- without being told that they have no choice. After all, the lenders were the ones making loans that they in many instances had no solid idea if the borrowers would or could re-pay. The defining criteria of loan approval for these loans was based solely on the lender's own profit margins and bottom lines, not an ability to re-pay them, as it should have been based upon. These government programs that have been set up to assist borrowers in trouble need to make lenders accountable if they are going to achieve what they were supposedly established to achieve.
There are no easy answers. That is for sure! Even if all of the current sub prime and exotic mortgages were reset to 30 year fixed rate loans at lower interest rates, undoubtedly many borrowers would still be in over their heads. Currently, much of the problem may be attributed more to declining market values than bad loans. What incentive do borrowers have to refinance and stay in their homes when they are upside down on their mortgage and owe more on the house than it's worth in today's market? Plenty it seems for many borrowers. Pride for one thing. Pride of ownership, pride that when you make a promise, you keep it. After all, that's the American way. We were taught that you don't walk away from your obligations. It's amazing how tenaciously many homeowners are struggling to hold onto their homes rather than to take the easy route and walk away from them.
Thankfully, homeowners can find many resources to aid in their battles to keep their homes. Online help is available, in many forms. See this website for an example of one way that grassroots organizations are taking shape to offer creative advice and possible solutions to stave off the tide of foreclosures. Lenders should be thrilled at homeowners who are fighting to keep their homes. They should jump right into the ring with the homeowner to do everything they can to try and make it manageable for the homeowner to refinance at a comfortable rate, so they can stay in their home. In the long run, helping borrowers instead of turning their backs on them has the potential to save the lenders a huge amount of money and headaches by having fewer properties to foreclose on. Fewer foreclosures also means possibly preventing a further erosion of home values. A sea of foreclosures has proven to do nothing for the real estate market but weaken buyer demand and cause a deeper erosion of property values.
A foreclosure can be a life changing experience for many people. Some liken it to a death or a divorce. Surely a financial catastrophe of this magnitude must feel like their world is crumbling to many people. We as real estate agents often times are caught in the middle. Right now in Tucson, many homeowners are attempting to sell their homes in what is called a "short sale." A short sale is when a homeowner who is behind on their mortgage tries to sell their house prior to it foreclosing. In a short sale, the lender agrees to accept less than what is owed on the loan to avoid the expense that it would cost the lender to foreclose on the property.
Short sales are difficult for Realtors because lenders are not very communicative or direct. They usually take much longer to close escrow than regular transactions, leaving the buyer of the house feeling like they were left hanging out to dry. There is one agent in my office who has been waiting to hear back from a lender of a property that a client is purchasing as a short sale for eight weeks. I find this almost impossible to comprehend in today's era of modern technology. Messages can be sent across the world in a matter of seconds. How can a financial entity be this inept at dealing with its accounts? I can only pose that as a rhetorical question for obvious reasons! In many instances, lenders will try to avoid compensating the real estate brokers for their participation in a sale (or else they will drastically reduce their compensation without cause or explanation), simply because they control the money. I know many agents who have worked extremely hard on these types of transactions, only to be burned by the lender in the end.
Additionally, lenders have been know to say they will agree to a short sale, and then once the transaction is complete, they file a deficiency judgement against the borrower in default in an attempt to recover the money they are owed. I have heard from inside sources that the only recourse a borrower has in an instance like this is to file personal bankruptcy. In January of 2009, many people who were either foreclosed on or sold their homes in short sales may be in for a rude awakening when they receive 1099's saying that they had miscellaneous income on the forgiven portion of the loan, and they may owe the IRS income taxes on the forgiven portion of the loan.
All in all, it's a difficult time for many homeowners. There are two silver linings right now for buyers. One is that home prices have dropped considerably, much of the decline being attributed to increased foreclosures and the ripple affect of them. In a few depressed areas of the nation, prices have fallen as much as 40%. Here in Tucson, prices have come down as much as 20% in some areas from their 2005-2006 peaks. Buyers can get a home for much less money, couple that with the second silver lining- the return of FHA financing. The real estate market won't be able to turn around until three things happen: 1) the market must absorb the existing inventory, 2) buyer demand must increase, and 3) lenders must find a way to help distressed homeowners and prospective borrowers. The government should find a way to make lenders accountable for being part of the solution. Otherwise, the government will become the proverbial appeasing alligator too.
Please feel free to call or e-mail me with your questions and/or concerns, and of course if you would like more information about the Tucson real estate market, or are thinking about buying or selling a Tucson property.
Written by Sarah Ley
BSBA, ABR, CRS, CNHSA
Tucson, AZ REALTOR with
Long Realty Company
Direct: (520) 404-0544
http://www.sarahley.longrealty.com/
sley@longrealty.com
Monday, March 10, 2008
Where do we go from here in Tucson real estate?
It seems to be the question flogging every one's mind these days- where is the Tucson real estate market headed? Let's face it, we are all affected by this down real estate market- whether we're looking to buy or sell a home in today's market or not. It affects consumer spending and consumer confidence, which in turn affects job creation and the overall economy. It's become an ongoing downward cycle, which is further perpetuated by sensationalized articles being churned out by our local media- whose goal is not to state the facts, but to sell newspapers. Yes folks, the real estate market (both nationally and locally) is a topic that's weighing heavily on most people's minds these days.
Consider this scenario, then consider the ramifications of it when you multiply it by the many homeowners here in Tucson (and nationally) who are faced with very similar predicaments. Joe (not his real name) bought his first house in the summer of 2005. It seemed to be a great time to buy. All his friends told him that owning a home was about the best investment decision a person could make. They also told him how easy it was to buy the home with no money down- he could even finance his closing costs. Why would he be so naive as to keep renting, when buying was a golden opportunity? His credit wasn't the greatest, but he could still qualify for 100% financing with a stated income, no doc, sub-prime loan. Even if something changed in the next few months, and he decided that the payment was more than he could handle- he could flip the home and make a lot of money. Everyone was doing it. It was so easy to buy and sell real estate.
So, as the story goes- Joe bought his first home. He paid $240,000 for it, which everyone said was a steal, considering that the house next door, which was the same floor plan just went under contract for $248,000. Joe's house was a 3BR/2BA, about 1,400 square feet in a popular neighborhood on Tucson's Northwest side. Prices were going up at the rate of about $5,000 a week with all the out of town buyers and investors from California. These real estate investors were coming by the bus load to buy 'investment properties' in Tucson- many of them utilizing 100% financing that was so ubiquitous. Joe saw himself as just plain lucky to get in on the action when he did.
Flash forward three years. Joe's 3/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) just kicked up to 10.5% a few months ago. In addition to his mortgage, Joe's expenses have gone way up, as inflation has caused prices to rise faster than wages. It's March of 2008 and Joe is in a bind. He can no longer afford his monthly mortgage payment. He talks to a real estate agent, only to discover that his house would fetch about $190,000 in the current market, and it could take six months to a year to sell it even at this price- given the huge inventory of homes on the market. This puts him in the hole $50,000 from what he owes on the house. Not to mention the closing costs and commissions involved in selling the home. How could this happen? How will he pay for this? What are his options? Who can he turn to? Joe is a very sad predicament, but a seemingly common one these days, as runaway interest rates and declining home prices are sending huge numbers of homeowners into a desperate downward spiral. These homeowners are upside down on their mortgages, many of them with no place to go- except foreclosure, and then personal bankruptcy. It's a horrible and sad spiral that is threatening to derail many homeowners, both here in Tucson and nationally.
Going from the microscopic to the macroscopic realm, nationally some estimates predict that mortgage losses may reach as high as $400 billion dollars over the next two years. It seems that about 40% of all people who did 100% financing between 2005-2007 are either in some stage of foreclosure or are behind on their mortgages. $400 billion may sound like a huge overestimate, but to put it in perspective, consider that there is a total of about $11 trillion in US mortgages that are outstanding. Our national and local economies are very threatened by this fact. The methods of this madness are detailed in a recent report stemming from the US Monetary Policy Forum's Conference on February 29, 2008. The title of this report by David Greenlaw et al. is, "Leveraged Losses: Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown." The report basically arrives at the projected losses of $400 billion by using several different models. The first looks at the loan performance of certain sub-prime and other mortgage loans, adjusted for declines in home prices. A second model uses market prices to obtain a loss estimate based on current real estate values. While a third model looks to historical data in areas that have previously been hit hard by big real estate declines, i.e. California, Texas, and Massachusetts. The most noteworthy item about this report is that all three models arrived at almost the same prediction for losses- $400 billion.
There are many financial and economic implications here, but the biggest one, and the one that has the possibility to affect the market the most is that the rising tide of lender losses will further erode lender capital, and this will inevitably cause lenders to trigger further 'belt tightening' out of pure necessity. This means that it is going to become more difficult for buyers to get a mortgage, but also that lending institutions are going to be a lot tighter fisted with their lending practices then they ever were. Anticipation of this necessary belt tightening is one of the main reasons why last week FHA (a government backed loan product that requires only a 3% down payment) increased their conforming loan limits to $316,250. FHA is responding to the tightening and restrictiveness of mortgage lenders to try and prevent the economy from going into a tailspin. If lenders make it harder for borrowers to borrow money to get a mortgage, then the buyer pool is going to shrink. The Federal Reserve has been trying to step in with a remedy of appealing to banks to borrow money from the Fed to stimulate the economy. Many banks are not responding, and that's causing already stalling markets to stagnate.
How does this affect today's home buyer, and to answer the question posed in the title of this post, "Where do we go from here?" In a March 9, 2008 Wall Street Journal article geared to first time home buyers entitled, "A Good time to buy a house- if you can," it states that today's mortgage lenders want borrowers to have no more than 28% of their income towards paying their mortgage payment and are expecting down payments of at least 5%. Some experts predict that in many markets, a first-time buyer will require as much as a 10% down payment. These changing standards are pulling many would be buyers out of the mix, creating what the Federal Reserve terms an 'adverse feedback loop,' or intensification of the factors causing the decline of investments and consumer spending . The Fed is meeting again on March 18th, and is expected to lower the funds rate by as much as 50 basis points to hopefully curtail an adverse feedback loop. Mainly, today's buyer needs to know- how does this affect me? So here goes- my two cents...
A few things to keep in mind if you are in the market to buy a home in Tucson right now.
1) Home prices have come down, in some areas as much as 20% from their 2005 peak, making buying a home in Tucson a lot more affordable than it was two to three years ago.
2) Interest rates are still relatively low, helping to keep your payment more affordable.
3) There is a massive selection of homes to choose from (both new homes and resales). The supply of homes on the market has the possibility to help you to get a better price and terms on your new home.
4) If you're buying the home to live in (your primary residence), and don't plan on selling it for 3 to 5 years, home ownership may make a lot more sense to you then renting, as you can take advantage of the tax savings on writing off your mortgage interest. You are not throwing away money on rent, and it will be your home, to furnish and stylize as you see fit.
5) Most importantly, get a professional Realtor to help you sort through the home buying maze!
In my opinion, it is a great time to buy a home, if it makes sense financially to you, and you're not trying to see your home as an investment. Remember, your home is a roof over your head. It's a place to live. It's not a piggy bank, nor should it be the only egg in your nest egg basket.
Please don't hesitate to call me with any questions about this posting, or about the Tucson market in general.
Written by Sarah Ley
BSBA, ABR, CRS, CNHSA
Tucson Realtor with
Long Realty Company
(520) 404-0544
sley@longrealty.com
http://www.sarahley.longrealty.com/
Consider this scenario, then consider the ramifications of it when you multiply it by the many homeowners here in Tucson (and nationally) who are faced with very similar predicaments. Joe (not his real name) bought his first house in the summer of 2005. It seemed to be a great time to buy. All his friends told him that owning a home was about the best investment decision a person could make. They also told him how easy it was to buy the home with no money down- he could even finance his closing costs. Why would he be so naive as to keep renting, when buying was a golden opportunity? His credit wasn't the greatest, but he could still qualify for 100% financing with a stated income, no doc, sub-prime loan. Even if something changed in the next few months, and he decided that the payment was more than he could handle- he could flip the home and make a lot of money. Everyone was doing it. It was so easy to buy and sell real estate.
So, as the story goes- Joe bought his first home. He paid $240,000 for it, which everyone said was a steal, considering that the house next door, which was the same floor plan just went under contract for $248,000. Joe's house was a 3BR/2BA, about 1,400 square feet in a popular neighborhood on Tucson's Northwest side. Prices were going up at the rate of about $5,000 a week with all the out of town buyers and investors from California. These real estate investors were coming by the bus load to buy 'investment properties' in Tucson- many of them utilizing 100% financing that was so ubiquitous. Joe saw himself as just plain lucky to get in on the action when he did.
Flash forward three years. Joe's 3/1 Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) just kicked up to 10.5% a few months ago. In addition to his mortgage, Joe's expenses have gone way up, as inflation has caused prices to rise faster than wages. It's March of 2008 and Joe is in a bind. He can no longer afford his monthly mortgage payment. He talks to a real estate agent, only to discover that his house would fetch about $190,000 in the current market, and it could take six months to a year to sell it even at this price- given the huge inventory of homes on the market. This puts him in the hole $50,000 from what he owes on the house. Not to mention the closing costs and commissions involved in selling the home. How could this happen? How will he pay for this? What are his options? Who can he turn to? Joe is a very sad predicament, but a seemingly common one these days, as runaway interest rates and declining home prices are sending huge numbers of homeowners into a desperate downward spiral. These homeowners are upside down on their mortgages, many of them with no place to go- except foreclosure, and then personal bankruptcy. It's a horrible and sad spiral that is threatening to derail many homeowners, both here in Tucson and nationally.
Going from the microscopic to the macroscopic realm, nationally some estimates predict that mortgage losses may reach as high as $400 billion dollars over the next two years. It seems that about 40% of all people who did 100% financing between 2005-2007 are either in some stage of foreclosure or are behind on their mortgages. $400 billion may sound like a huge overestimate, but to put it in perspective, consider that there is a total of about $11 trillion in US mortgages that are outstanding. Our national and local economies are very threatened by this fact. The methods of this madness are detailed in a recent report stemming from the US Monetary Policy Forum's Conference on February 29, 2008. The title of this report by David Greenlaw et al. is, "Leveraged Losses: Lessons from the Mortgage Market Meltdown." The report basically arrives at the projected losses of $400 billion by using several different models. The first looks at the loan performance of certain sub-prime and other mortgage loans, adjusted for declines in home prices. A second model uses market prices to obtain a loss estimate based on current real estate values. While a third model looks to historical data in areas that have previously been hit hard by big real estate declines, i.e. California, Texas, and Massachusetts. The most noteworthy item about this report is that all three models arrived at almost the same prediction for losses- $400 billion.
There are many financial and economic implications here, but the biggest one, and the one that has the possibility to affect the market the most is that the rising tide of lender losses will further erode lender capital, and this will inevitably cause lenders to trigger further 'belt tightening' out of pure necessity. This means that it is going to become more difficult for buyers to get a mortgage, but also that lending institutions are going to be a lot tighter fisted with their lending practices then they ever were. Anticipation of this necessary belt tightening is one of the main reasons why last week FHA (a government backed loan product that requires only a 3% down payment) increased their conforming loan limits to $316,250. FHA is responding to the tightening and restrictiveness of mortgage lenders to try and prevent the economy from going into a tailspin. If lenders make it harder for borrowers to borrow money to get a mortgage, then the buyer pool is going to shrink. The Federal Reserve has been trying to step in with a remedy of appealing to banks to borrow money from the Fed to stimulate the economy. Many banks are not responding, and that's causing already stalling markets to stagnate.
How does this affect today's home buyer, and to answer the question posed in the title of this post, "Where do we go from here?" In a March 9, 2008 Wall Street Journal article geared to first time home buyers entitled, "A Good time to buy a house- if you can," it states that today's mortgage lenders want borrowers to have no more than 28% of their income towards paying their mortgage payment and are expecting down payments of at least 5%. Some experts predict that in many markets, a first-time buyer will require as much as a 10% down payment. These changing standards are pulling many would be buyers out of the mix, creating what the Federal Reserve terms an 'adverse feedback loop,' or intensification of the factors causing the decline of investments and consumer spending . The Fed is meeting again on March 18th, and is expected to lower the funds rate by as much as 50 basis points to hopefully curtail an adverse feedback loop. Mainly, today's buyer needs to know- how does this affect me? So here goes- my two cents...
A few things to keep in mind if you are in the market to buy a home in Tucson right now.
1) Home prices have come down, in some areas as much as 20% from their 2005 peak, making buying a home in Tucson a lot more affordable than it was two to three years ago.
2) Interest rates are still relatively low, helping to keep your payment more affordable.
3) There is a massive selection of homes to choose from (both new homes and resales). The supply of homes on the market has the possibility to help you to get a better price and terms on your new home.
4) If you're buying the home to live in (your primary residence), and don't plan on selling it for 3 to 5 years, home ownership may make a lot more sense to you then renting, as you can take advantage of the tax savings on writing off your mortgage interest. You are not throwing away money on rent, and it will be your home, to furnish and stylize as you see fit.
5) Most importantly, get a professional Realtor to help you sort through the home buying maze!
In my opinion, it is a great time to buy a home, if it makes sense financially to you, and you're not trying to see your home as an investment. Remember, your home is a roof over your head. It's a place to live. It's not a piggy bank, nor should it be the only egg in your nest egg basket.
Please don't hesitate to call me with any questions about this posting, or about the Tucson market in general.
Written by Sarah Ley
BSBA, ABR, CRS, CNHSA
Tucson Realtor with
Long Realty Company
(520) 404-0544
sley@longrealty.com
http://www.sarahley.longrealty.com/
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
